Expected Goals
1.53 (league 1.31)
1.48 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.3% | 24.3% | 36.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
2 - 1
8.5%
1 - 2
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| ABC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sousa | 0 | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Sousa -5.4, ABC -1.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Sousa
vs
ABC
Elo gapABC +2
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3020
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3020
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Sousa | ABC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.3 | 1528.7 |
| Form Elo | 1482.6 | 1535.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516 | 1514.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1420 | 1546.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1607.6 | 1572.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.4 | -1.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Sousa last-5 Elo change: -5.4; ABC last-5 Elo change: -1.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sousa | ABC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 14% | 43% |
| Defense | 71% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 4 | 1.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sousa | ABC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 50% | 33% |
SousaLWL
ABCLWW
League goals
| Metric | Sousa | ABC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sousa | ABC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 67% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sousa | ABC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sousa | ABC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sousa | ABC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sousa | ABC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 38.8% | 61.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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