Serie D — Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 20:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Marcílio Dias

—

Blumenau

Expected Goals
0.53 (league 1.31) 1.71 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.1% 22.7% 65.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.1%
0 - 2
15.5%
0 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
Blumenau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marcílio Dias 0 10.6% 18.1% 15.5% 8.8% 3.8% 1.3%
1 5.7% 9.7% 8.3% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7%
2 1.5% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Marcílio Dias carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Marcílio Dias +1.2, Blumenau +28.2.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Marcílio Dias Elo 1573.4 · +1.2
vs
Blumenau Elo 1578.8 · +28.2
Elo gapMarcílio Dias +30
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3152.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3152.2
Elo home share 54%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Marcílio Dias Blumenau
Overall Elo1573.41578.8
Form Elo1578.91617.9
Home / Away Elo1531.61516.4
Attack Elo1586.71549.6
Defense Elo1582.91592.8
Last 5 Elo change+1.2+28.2

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Marcílio Dias last-5 Elo change: +1.2; Blumenau last-5 Elo change: +28.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarcílio DiasBlumenau
Played33
Form56%100%
Attack14%50%
Defense93%86%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.77 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.32 | 0.7

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

49%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marcílio Dias Blumenau
HATHAT
Played213213
Wins50%0%33%100%100%100%
Draws50%100%67%0%0%0%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%
Marcílio DiasDDW
BlumenauWWW

League goals

Metric Marcílio Dias Blumenau
HATHAT
GF total202437
GF avg1.00.00.72.03.02.3
GA total101202
GA avg0.50.00.31.00.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarcílio DiasBlumenau
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%33%100%33%
1.533%0%67%33%
2.50%0%67%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarcílio DiasBlumenau
HATHAT
Clean sheets112112
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricMarcílio DiasBlumenau
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMarcílio DiasBlumenau
Wins03
Draws20
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-20-3
Biggest losses————
Goals For2033
Goals Against1020

Model comparison

MetricMarcílio DiasBlumenau
Form36%64%
Att22%78%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total41.7%58.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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