Serie D — Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 21:00 • Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra
Not Started

XV de Piracicaba

—

CFRJ / Maricá

Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.31) 1.14 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
53.9% 22.2% 22.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.3%
2 - 1
9.8%
1 - 0
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
CFRJ / Maricá
0 1 2 3 4 5
XV de Piracicaba 0 4.8% 5.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 9.1% 10.3% 5.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.6% 9.8% 5.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.5% 6.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
5 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

XV de Piracicaba carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 149 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: XV de Piracicaba +3.2, CFRJ / Maricá +24.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
XV de Piracicaba Elo 1567.2 · +3.2
vs
CFRJ / Maricá Elo 1452.8 · +24.5
Elo gapXV de Piracicaba +149
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3020
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3020
Elo home share 70%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric XV de Piracicaba CFRJ / Maricá
Overall Elo1567.21452.8
Form Elo1567.51485.9
Home / Away Elo1545.41495.4
Attack Elo15061457.1
Defense Elo1611.21443.8
Last 5 Elo change+3.2+24.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. XV de Piracicaba last-5 Elo change: +3.2; CFRJ / Maricá last-5 Elo change: +24.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
Played33
Form56%78%
Attack50%36%
Defense71%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 2.35 | 1.7
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 1.33 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric XV de Piracicaba CFRJ / Maricá
HATHAT
Played213213
Wins50%0%33%50%100%67%
Draws50%100%67%50%0%33%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%
XV de PiracicabaWDD
CFRJ / MaricáWWD

League goals

Metric XV de Piracicaba CFRJ / Maricá
HATHAT
GF total527415
GF avg2.52.02.32.01.01.7
GA total224303
GA avg1.02.01.31.50.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%67%
1.567%33%67%33%
2.533%0%0%0%
3.533%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
Wins12
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1—2-10-1
Biggest losses————
Goals For4221
Goals Against1220

Model comparison

MetricXV de PiracicabaCFRJ / Maricá
Form42%58%
Att58%42%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total47.7%52.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • XV de Piracicaba vs CFRJ / Maricá