Expected Goals
1.53 (league 1.31)
1.14 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.7% | 25.5% | 28.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Lagarto | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sergipe | 0 | 7.0% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Sergipe carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 62 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sergipe -5.6, Lagarto -7.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Sergipe
vs
Lagarto
Elo gapSergipe +62
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3055.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3055.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1541.1 | 1514.2 |
| Form Elo | 1527.6 | 1497.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.5 | 1504.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.8 | 1575.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1571.4 | 1489.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.6 | -7.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sergipe last-5 Elo change: -5.6; Lagarto last-5 Elo change: -7.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 44% |
| Attack | 29% | 50% |
| Defense | 64% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 7 | 2.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 7 | 2.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
93%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
SergipeDWL
LagartoDWL
League goals
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sergipe | Lagarto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | — | 5-4 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sergipe | Lagarto |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 38% | 62% |
| Total | 45.0% | 55.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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