Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 22:00 •
Estadio Jose Mammoud Abbas
Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.31)
0.40 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3% | 65.1% | 31.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
63.8%
0 - 1
25.5%
0 - 2
5.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Tombense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Democrata GV | 0 | 63.8% | 25.5% | 5.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Democrata GV carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Democrata GV -4.4, Tombense +33.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Democrata GV
vs
Tombense
Elo gapDemocrata GV +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2932.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2932.7
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1458.4 | 1474.3 |
| Form Elo | 1443.5 | 1519.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1466.8 | 1478.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1429.2 | 1435.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1518.4 | 1544 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.4 | +33.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Democrata GV last-5 Elo change: -4.4; Tombense last-5 Elo change: +33.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 78% |
| Attack | 14% | 29% |
| Defense | 86% | 100% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
30%
FT probability
2.5+
21%
FT probability
3.5+
15%
FT probability
BTTS
39%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 50% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Democrata GVWDL
TombenseWWD
League goals
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Democrata GV | Tombense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 0% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Democrata GV | Tombense |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 0% | 100% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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