Expected Goals
1.17 (league 1.29)
0.58 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.1% | 31.4% | 18.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.3%
0 - 0
17.4%
2 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Independência | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Araguaína | 0 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.6% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.8% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Araguaína carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 86 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Araguaína +14.1, Independência +7.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Araguaína
vs
Independência
Elo gapAraguaína +86
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2995.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2995.5
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523 | 1472.5 |
| Form Elo | 1560.4 | 1487.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.8 | 1486.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1494.3 | 1474.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1567.7 | 1509.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.1 | +7.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Araguaína last-5 Elo change: +14.1; Independência last-5 Elo change: +7.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 33% |
| Attack | 36% | 29% |
| Defense | 79% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 67% |
AraguaínaWDW
IndependênciaLWL
League goals
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Araguaína | Independência | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 0% | 33% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-2 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Araguaína | Independência |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 61.0% | 39.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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