Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.29)
1.74 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% | 18.2% | 80.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
29.1%
0 - 2
25.3%
0 - 0
16.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Gama | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Brasiliense | 0 | 17.4% | 29.5% | 25.1% | 14.2% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Gama carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the thin confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Brasiliense +5.9, Gama +19.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Brasiliense
vs
Gama
Elo gapGama +18
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo3191.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3191.1
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1569.1 | 1622 |
| Form Elo | 1582.3 | 1665.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1523.7 | 1543.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.5 | 1528.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1605.2 | 1622.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.9 | +19.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Brasiliense last-5 Elo change: +5.9; Gama last-5 Elo change: +19.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 56% | 100% |
| Attack | 14% | 36% |
| Defense | 93% | 100% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 5 | 1.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
0.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
44%
FT probability
2.5+
31%
FT probability
3.5+
22%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | 100% | 50% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
BrasilienseDDW
GamaWWW
League goals
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Brasiliense | Gama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Brasiliense | Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 0% | 100% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 31.0% | 69.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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