Serie D — Brazil
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 21:00 • Francisco Novelletto Neto
Not Started

Sao Jose

—

Brasil DE Pelotas

Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.31) 6.84 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
0.3% 0.8% 31.1%
best score tips
0 - 5
6.7%
0 - 4
4.9%
1 - 5
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
Brasil DE Pelotas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sao Jose 0 0.1% 0.4% 1.3% 2.9% 4.9% 6.7%
1 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 2.0% 3.4% 4.6%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.6%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Brasil DE Pelotas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sao Jose -30.0, Brasil DE Pelotas +8.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Sao Jose Elo 1484.6 · -30.0
vs
Brasil DE Pelotas Elo 1547.9 · +8.0
Elo gapBrasil DE Pelotas +28
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3032.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3032.5
Elo home share 46%
Match tone Strong Watch
Metric Sao Jose Brasil DE Pelotas
Overall Elo1484.61547.9
Form Elo1442.21561.2
Home / Away Elo1479.61498.7
Attack Elo1465.21556.3
Defense Elo1530.11586.1
Last 5 Elo change-30.0+8.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sao Jose last-5 Elo change: -30.0; Brasil DE Pelotas last-5 Elo change: +8.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
Played33
Form0%67%
Attack7%43%
Defense57%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.36 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 24 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sao Jose Brasil DE Pelotas
HATHAT
Played123213
Wins0%0%0%100%0%67%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses100%100%100%0%100%33%
Sao JoseLLL
Brasil DE PelotasWLW

League goals

Metric Sao Jose Brasil DE Pelotas
HATHAT
GF total011426
GF avg0.00.50.32.02.02.0
GA total336134
GA avg3.01.52.00.53.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%100%100%67%
1.50%67%100%33%
2.50%33%0%33%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
Wins01
Draws00
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——2-0—
Biggest losses0-32-1—3-2
Goals For0122
Goals Against3213

Model comparison

MetricSao JoseBrasil DE Pelotas
Form0%100%
Att14%86%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h80%20%
Goals64%36%
Total49.5%50.5%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Sao Jose vs Brasil DE Pelotas