Expected Goals
3.05 (league 1.31)
5.70 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | 8.1% | 28.3% |
best score tips
3 - 5
3.8%
2 - 5
3.7%
3 - 4
3.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Galvez | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Humaitá | 0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Galvez carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Humaitá -33.8, Galvez -13.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Humaitá
vs
Galvez
Elo gapGalvez +21
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2948.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2948.8
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1446.3 | 1502.5 |
| Form Elo | 1398.2 | 1475.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.7 | 1507.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1467 | 1561.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1361.1 | 1425.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.8 | -13.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Humaitá last-5 Elo change: -33.8; Galvez last-5 Elo change: -13.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 0% | 33% |
| Attack | 14% | 21% |
| Defense | 21% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.7 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 3.7 | 7 | 2.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
6.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
9.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
63%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
HumaitáLLL
GalvezLLW
League goals
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Humaitá | Galvez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 100% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Humaitá | Galvez |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 39% | 61% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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