Expected Goals
0.46 (league 1.31)
1.14 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% | 32.3% | 52.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
23.1%
0 - 0
20.2%
0 - 2
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
| GAS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monte Roraima | 0 | 20.2% | 23.1% | 13.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Monte Roraima carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Monte Roraima -17.9, GAS -27.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Monte Roraima
vs
GAS
Elo gapMonte Roraima +60
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3017.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3017.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.1 | 1496.2 |
| Form Elo | 1499.8 | 1455.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.5 | 1510.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1549.4 | 1627.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1508 | 1484.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.9 | -27.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Monte Roraima last-5 Elo change: -17.9; GAS last-5 Elo change: -27.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 11% | 0% |
| Attack | 7% | 13% |
| Defense | 73% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 2 | 0.7 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Monte RoraimaLLD
GASLLL
League goals
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Monte Roraima | GAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 100% | 33% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Monte Roraima | GAS |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 36% | 64% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 43.5% | 56.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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