Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:15 •
Estadio Hernando Siles
Expected Goals
5.91 (league 2.03)
0.51 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
best score tips
5 - 0
9.8%
4 - 0
8.3%
3 - 0
5.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Tomayapo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bolívar | 0 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Bolívar carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 330 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bolívar -10.9, Real Tomayapo +3.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Bolívar
vs
Real Tomayapo
Elo gapBolívar +330
Home / draw / away71% / 18% / 11%
Expected home share87%
Combined Elo3102.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3102.3
Elo home share
87%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1698.4 | 1403.9 |
| Form Elo | 1673.7 | 1411 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1602.6 | 1409.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1928 | 1483 |
| Defense Elo | 1642 | 1227.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.9 | +3.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Bolívar last-5 Elo change: -10.9; Real Tomayapo last-5 Elo change: +3.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 67% | 22% |
| Attack | 67% | 8% |
| Defense | 67% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2.7 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 5 | 1.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
75%
FT probability
3.5+
54%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Loses | 50% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
BolívarWWL
Real TomayapoLDD
League goals
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| GA total | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 0-2 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | — | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bolívar | Real Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 89% | 11% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 74% | 26% |
| Total | 73.0% | 27.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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