US Monastirienne vs AS Gabes

Ligue 1 — Tunisia

Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 14:30 • Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet

Not Started

home	draw	away
78.5%	16.5%	3.4%

		AS Gabes
US Monastirienne	0	11.2%	2.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	22.0%	4.8%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	21.7%	4.8%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	14.3%	3.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	7.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

US Monastirienne carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 226 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: US Monastirienne -31.4, AS Gabes -29.9.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

US Monastirienne Elo 1577.4 · -31.4

AS Gabes Elo 1386.9 · -29.9

Elo gapUS Monastirienne +226

Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%

Expected home share79%

Combined Elo2964.3

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2964.3

Elo home share 79%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Overall Elo	1577.4	1386.9
Form Elo	1560.1	1379.5
Home / Away Elo	1567.9	1433.2
Attack Elo	1505.9	1311.6
Defense Elo	1685	1469.3
Last 5 Elo change	-31.4	-29.9

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. US Monastirienne last-5 Elo change: -31.4; AS Gabes last-5 Elo change: -29.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Played	5	5
Form	20%	7%
Attack	0%	13%
Defense	63%	13%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	0 \| 0	1 \| 0.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	3 \| 0.6	7 \| 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

49%

FT probability

2.5+

35%

FT probability

3.5+

25%

FT probability

BTTS

53%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	US Monastirienne			AS Gabes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	12	14	26	13	13	26
Wins	58%	14%	35%	15%	8%	12%
Draws	33%	57%	46%	54%	15%	35%
Loses	8%	29%	19%	31%	77%	54%

US MonastirienneDDWDDWWDWLDDDWWDWLWLWDLDDL

AS GabesDDWLLLDLLDLDLDLLWLDWDLLLLD

League goals

Metric	US Monastirienne			AS Gabes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	15	8	23	6	5	11
GF avg	1.3	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.4	0.4
GA total	5	11	16	9	22	31
GA avg	0.4	0.8	0.6	0.7	1.7	1.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	US Monastirienne		AS Gabes
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	58%	50%	38%	73%
1.5	27%	12%	4%	31%
2.5	4%	0%	0%	12%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	4%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	US Monastirienne			AS Gabes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	7	6	13	5	2	7
Failed to score	3	8	11	8	8	16

Penalties

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	0

Streaks

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Wins	2	1
Draws	3	2
Losses	1	4

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	1-2	2-1	0-1
Biggest losses	0-1	2-0	0-2	4-0
Goals For	3	2	2	1
Goals Against	1	2	2	4

Model comparison

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Form	75%	25%
Att	0%	100%
Def	70%	30%
Poisson Distribution	90%	10%
H2h	85%	15%
Goals	85%	15%
Total	81.0%	19.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • US Monastirienne vs AS Gabes

Metric	US Monastirienne	AS Gabes
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	0

US Monastirienne vs AS Gabes