Kansallinen Liiga — Finland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

HJK W

—

Ilves W

Expected Goals
1.17 (league 2.14) 0.05 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.9% 31.4% 1.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
34.6%
0 - 0
29.6%
2 - 0
20.1%
Score & goals probability table
Ilves W
0 1 2 3 4 5
HJK W 0 29.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 34.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 8.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

HJK W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 174 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: HJK W 0.0, Ilves W +6.4.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
HJK W Elo 1650.8 · 0.0
vs
Ilves W Elo 1511.9 · +6.4
Elo gapHJK W +174
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3162.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3162.7
Elo home share 73%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric HJK W Ilves W
Overall Elo1650.81511.9
Form Elo1650.81540.7
Home / Away Elo15731499.5
Attack Elo1844.31527.6
Defense Elo1632.81513.1
Last 5 Elo change0.0+6.4

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. HJK W last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Ilves W last-5 Elo change: +6.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHJK WIlves W
Played12
Form100%50%
Attack5%23%
Defense100%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 15 | 2.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)0 | 05 | 2.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

43%
FT probability

2.5+

30%
FT probability

3.5+

21%
FT probability

BTTS

52%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric HJK W Ilves W
HATHAT
Played011202
Wins—100%100%50%—50%
Draws—0%0%0%—0%
Loses—0%0%50%—50%
HJK WW
Ilves WLW

League goals

Metric HJK W Ilves W
HATHAT
GF total011505
GF avg0.01.01.02.50.02.5
GA total000505
GA avg0.00.00.02.50.02.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHJK WIlves W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%0%100%50%
1.50%0%100%50%
2.50%0%50%50%
3.50%0%0%50%
4.50%0%0%50%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHJK WIlves W
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricHJK WIlves W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricHJK WIlves W
Wins10
Draws00
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-13-0—
Biggest losses——2-5—
Goals For0130
Goals Against0050

Model comparison

MetricHJK WIlves W
Form50%50%
Att17%83%
Def100%0%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h100%0%
Goals94%6%
Total53.7%46.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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