Expected Goals
0.57 (league 1.27)
1.09 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.1% | 32.8% | 48.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
20.8%
0 - 0
19.0%
1 - 1
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Usm El Harrach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| GC Mascara | 0 | 19.0% | 20.8% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 11.8% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Usm El Harrach carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 161 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: GC Mascara +14.9, Usm El Harrach -2.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
GC Mascara
vs
Usm El Harrach
Elo gapUsm El Harrach +161
Home / draw / away23% / 18% / 59%
Expected home share28%
Combined Elo3144
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3144
Elo home share
28%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474 | 1670 |
| Form Elo | 1490 | 1675.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.1 | 1588.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.3 | 1581.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1542.1 | 1692.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.9 | -2.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. GC Mascara last-5 Elo change: +14.9; Usm El Harrach last-5 Elo change: -2.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 89% | 67% |
| Defense | 33% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 50% | 7% | 29% | 79% | 43% | 61% |
| Draws | 14% | 29% | 21% | 7% | 43% | 25% |
| Loses | 36% | 64% | 50% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
GC MascaraLLLLLDLWLWDLWLLWDLDDWWLLLWWD
Usm El HarrachDWDWLLDWWWWWDWWWDWWWDWDWLLWW
League goals
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 10 | 27 | 23 | 19 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 9 | 24 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 71% | 79% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 29% | 43% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 14% | 18% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | GC Mascara | Usm El Harrach |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 40.7% | 59.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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