Tacna Heroica vs Comerciantes

Segunda División — Peru

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 20:15 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Tacna Heroica

—

Comerciantes

Expected Goals

1.29 (league 1.55) 2.25 (league 0.89)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
20.9%	19.8%	56.4%

best score tips

1 - 2

9.5%

1 - 1

8.4%

0 - 2

7.3%

Score & goals probability table

		Comerciantes
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Tacna Heroica	0	2.9%	6.5%	7.3%	5.5%	3.1%	1.4%
	1	3.7%	8.4%	9.5%	7.1%	4.0%	1.8%
	2	2.4%	5.4%	6.1%	4.6%	2.6%	1.2%
	3	1.0%	2.3%	2.6%	2.0%	1.1%	0.5%
	4	0.3%	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
	5	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Tacna Heroica +18.7, Comerciantes +23.4.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Tacna Heroica Elo 1521.7 · +18.7

Comerciantes Elo 1571.3 · +23.4

Elo gapComerciantes +15

Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%

Expected home share48%

Combined Elo3093

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3093

Elo home share 48%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Overall Elo	1521.7	1571.3
Form Elo	1552.4	1606.1
Home / Away Elo	1505.5	1507.9
Attack Elo	1482.1	1578.1
Defense Elo	1533.2	1587.7
Last 5 Elo change	+18.7	+23.4

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Tacna Heroica last-5 Elo change: +18.7; Comerciantes last-5 Elo change: +23.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Played	3	3
Form	78%	100%
Attack	23%	46%
Defense	92%	77%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	3 \| 1	6 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	1 \| 0.3	3 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%

FT probability

2.5+

52%

FT probability

3.5+

37%

FT probability

BTTS

77%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-3

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Tacna Heroica			Comerciantes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	1	2	3	2	1	3
Wins	100%	50%	67%	100%	100%	100%
Draws	0%	50%	33%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Tacna HeroicaDWW

ComerciantesWWW

League goals

Metric	Tacna Heroica			Comerciantes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	2	1	3	4	2	6
GF avg	2.0	0.5	1.0	2.0	2.0	2.0
GA total	1	0	1	2	1	3
GA avg	1.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.0	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Tacna Heroica		Comerciantes
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	67%	33%	100%	67%
1.5	33%	0%	67%	33%
2.5	0%	0%	33%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Tacna Heroica			Comerciantes
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	2	2	1	0	1
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Wins	0	3
Draws	1	0
Losses	0	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-1	0-1	3-2	1-2
Biggest losses	—	—	—	—
Goals For	2	1	3	2
Goals Against	1	0	2	1

Model comparison

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Form	44%	56%
Att	33%	67%
Def	75%	25%
Poisson Distribution	49%	51%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	40%	60%
Total	48.5%	51.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Tacna Heroica vs Comerciantes

Metric	Tacna Heroica	Comerciantes
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0