Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:15 •
Allianz Arena
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.84)
2.09 (league 1.58)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.9% | 20.6% | 58.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.9%
1 - 1
9.5%
0 - 2
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Barcelona W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bayern Munich W | 0 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Bayern Munich W +32.9, Barcelona W +36.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Bayern Munich W
vs
Barcelona W
Elo gapBarcelona W +12
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3685.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3685.9
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1819.6 | 1866.3 |
| Form Elo | 1842.6 | 1904.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1640.4 | 1668 |
| Attack Elo | 2070.5 | 2200 |
| Defense Elo | 1739.4 | 1817.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +32.9 | +36.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Bayern Munich W last-5 Elo change: +32.9; Barcelona W last-5 Elo change: +36.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 87% |
| Attack | 68% | 95% |
| Defense | 68% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 18 | 3.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
6.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
83%
FT probability
3.5+
59%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-1
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 75% | 88% |
| Draws | 0% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bayern Munich WLWWWDWWW
Barcelona WWWWDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 9 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 32 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 88% | 100% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 88% | 50% | 88% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 13% | 75% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 50% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 38% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 7-1 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | — | 7-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bayern Munich W | Barcelona W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 37.7% | 62.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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