Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
3Arena
Expected Goals
0.72 (league 1.73)
1.39 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5% | 27.7% | 52.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
16.8%
1 - 1
12.2%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Häcken | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hammarby | 0 | 12.1% | 16.8% | 11.7% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Hammarby +22.9, Häcken +14.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Hammarby
vs
Häcken
Elo gapHammarby +17
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3486.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3486.5
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1734.4 | 1752.1 |
| Form Elo | 1761.8 | 1771.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1622.6 | 1632.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1920.9 | 2152.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1741.9 | 1775.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.9 | +14.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Hammarby last-5 Elo change: +22.9; Häcken last-5 Elo change: +14.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 93% |
| Defense | 73% | 87% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Draws | 25% | 25% | 25% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
HammarbyWDWWWDWW
HäckenWWWDWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hammarby | Häcken | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 38% |
| 1.5 | 63% | 13% | 63% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 63% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 38% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 7-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 35% | 65% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 37.7% | 62.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…