Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Wembley Stadium
Expected Goals
5.06 (league 1.80)
1.48 (league 1.46)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
best score tips
5 - 1
5.9%
4 - 1
5.8%
3 - 1
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Leeds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chelsea | 0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Chelsea carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chelsea +41.7, Leeds +24.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Chelsea
vs
Leeds
Elo gapChelsea +66
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3221.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3221.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1625.9 | 1595.4 |
| Form Elo | 1671.1 | 1619.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1564.4 | 1526.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1783.7 | 1617.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1589.8 | 1584.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +41.7 | +24.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Chelsea last-5 Elo change: +41.7; Leeds last-5 Elo change: +24.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 100% | 100% |
| Attack | 91% | 50% |
| Defense | 86% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 20 | 5 | 11 | 2.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.8 | 4 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
7.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
9.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
70%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
ChelseaWWWW
LeedsWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 13 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| GF avg | 7.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chelsea | Leeds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 50% | 100% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 25% | 100% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 75% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chelsea | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 65% | 35% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 41% | 59% |
| Total | 52.6% | 47.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ 888Sport
Draw3.82 @ 1xBet
Away3.86 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.91 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.10 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ 10Bet
No2.15 @ Betfair
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League standings
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