Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Gradski stadion - Yumco
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.27)
0.58 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.7% | 38.7% | 24.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
25.7%
1 - 0
20.0%
0 - 1
14.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Grafičar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dinamo Jug | 0 | 25.7% | 14.9% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Dinamo Jug carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 67 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dinamo Jug -14.8, Grafičar -26.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dinamo Jug
vs
Grafičar
Elo gapDinamo Jug +67
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3046.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3046.2
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1539.3 | 1506.9 |
| Form Elo | 1534.4 | 1501.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1537.8 | 1513.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.8 | 1438.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.2 | 1554.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.8 | -26.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dinamo Jug last-5 Elo change: -14.8; Grafičar last-5 Elo change: -26.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 12% | 12% |
| Defense | 76% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
57%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 50% | 25% | 38% | 41% | 27% | 34% |
| Draws | 31% | 44% | 38% | 24% | 40% | 31% |
| Loses | 19% | 31% | 25% | 35% | 33% | 34% |
Dinamo JugLDWLDLWWLDDDWDWDDWWDWDDDWWLLLLWW
GrafičarWDLWLLWLLLDDWDLWDWDWLDDWLWWDLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 22 | 10 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 12 | 17 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 63% | 59% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 22% | 28% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 6% | 9% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dinamo Jug | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 57.8% | 42.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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