Premiership
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Pittodrie Stadium
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.61)
0.95 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7% | 17.5% | 13.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
8.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Kilmarnock | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Aberdeen | 0 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Aberdeen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Aberdeen -2.5, Kilmarnock +9.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Aberdeen
vs
Kilmarnock
Elo gapAberdeen +36
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2912.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2912.6
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1456.9 | 1455.7 |
| Form Elo | 1445.1 | 1466.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500.5 | 1444.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1447 | 1478.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1456.4 | 1377.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.5 | +9.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Aberdeen last-5 Elo change: -2.5; Kilmarnock last-5 Elo change: +9.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 22% | 26% |
| Defense | 61% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 31% | 24% | 27% | 29% | 6% | 18% |
| Draws | 31% | 6% | 18% | 24% | 38% | 30% |
| Loses | 38% | 71% | 55% | 47% | 56% | 52% |
AberdeenLLLDLLWWLWDWWDWWLDLLLLWLLLDLLDLLW
KilmarnockDDDDLWWLLLLLLDDLLLDLLDLWLWLDLWWLD
League goals
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 8 | 33 | 22 | 15 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 27 | 38 | 65 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 76% | 73% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 52% | 30% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 15% | 6% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 3% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Aberdeen | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 49.3% | 50.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ Dafabet
Draw3.75 @ Betfair
Away3.80 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.91 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.05 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ Bet365
No2.25 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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