First League
— Russia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 12:00 •
Central Stadium
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.24)
1.38 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.9% | 23.1% | 29.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
2 - 1
9.3%
1 - 0
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| FK Neftekhimik | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chelyabinsk | 0 | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Chelyabinsk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chelyabinsk -22.4, FK Neftekhimik +12.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Chelyabinsk
vs
FK Neftekhimik
Elo gapChelyabinsk +21
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2995.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2995.9
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1490.8 | 1505.1 |
| Form Elo | 1470.8 | 1509.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.5 | 1495.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1452.3 | 1516.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1498.9 | 1524.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.4 | +12.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Chelyabinsk last-5 Elo change: -22.4; FK Neftekhimik last-5 Elo change: +12.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 47% |
| Attack | 50% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 19% | 29% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Draws | 47% | 38% | 42% | 38% | 40% | 39% |
| Loses | 13% | 44% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
ChelyabinskWWLWLWDDWDWDDDDLLWDWLWDDLLDDLDL
FK NeftekhimikDDDWLLDLDWWWDLDLDDWWDWLWDLLDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 13 | 38 | 18 | 20 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 17 | 19 | 36 | 16 | 19 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 68% | 68% | 58% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 39% | 29% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 10% | 16% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chelyabinsk | FK Neftekhimik |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 43.2% | 56.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.26 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.04 @ 1xBet
Away3.70 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.70 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.44 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.18 @ 1xBet
No1.61 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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