First League
— Russia
Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Trud Stadium
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.24)
0.38 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.7% | 27.9% | 10.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
24.0%
0 - 0
17.7%
2 - 0
16.3%
Score & goals probability table
| FK Sokol Saratov | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Volga Ulyanovsk | 0 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.3% | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Volga Ulyanovsk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 166 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Volga Ulyanovsk +1.6, FK Sokol Saratov -19.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Volga Ulyanovsk
vs
FK Sokol Saratov
Elo gapVolga Ulyanovsk +166
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo2920.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2920.6
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1525.9 | 1394.7 |
| Form Elo | 1531.9 | 1366.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.3 | 1450.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1515.1 | 1486.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1530.4 | 1477.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.6 | -19.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Volga Ulyanovsk last-5 Elo change: +1.6; FK Sokol Saratov last-5 Elo change: -19.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 27% | 18% |
| Defense | 73% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 19% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 10% |
| Draws | 20% | 38% | 29% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 40% | 44% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% |
Volga UlyanovskLLDLWLWDLWLDLLWLLWLWDDWDLWDLDWD
FK Sokol SaratovDDLDDLLLLDWLDDDWLDLDLLLLLLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 14 | 33 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| GA total | 20 | 22 | 42 | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 74% | 39% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 42% | 3% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 10% | 0% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
Penalties
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 10 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | FK Sokol Saratov |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 70.0% | 30.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.71 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ 1xBet
Away5.66 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.33 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.62 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.16 @ Marathonbet
No1.62 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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