Nacional vs Caravel

Division di Honor — Aruba

Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 00:30 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Nacional

—

Caravel

Expected Goals

2.89 (league 1.46) 1.77 (league 1.81)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
53.7%	16.9%	21.2%

best score tips

2 - 1

7.0%

3 - 1

6.8%

2 - 2

6.2%

Score & goals probability table

		Caravel
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Nacional	0	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%
	1	2.8%	4.9%	4.3%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
	2	4.0%	7.0%	6.2%	3.6%	1.6%	0.6%
	3	3.8%	6.8%	6.0%	3.5%	1.5%	0.5%
	4	2.8%	4.9%	4.3%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
	5	1.6%	2.8%	2.5%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Nacional +45.8, Caravel +6.9.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Nacional Elo 1476.5 · +45.8

Caravel Elo 1506.9 · +6.9

Elo gapNacional +5

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo2983.4

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2983.4

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Strong Watch

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Overall Elo	1476.5	1506.9
Form Elo	1489.4	1521.1
Home / Away Elo	1495	1502.8
Attack Elo	1549.9	1483.9
Defense Elo	1476.5	1524.7
Last 5 Elo change	+45.8	+6.9

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Nacional last-5 Elo change: +45.8; Caravel last-5 Elo change: +6.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Played	5	4
Form	80%	100%
Attack	100%	87%
Defense	40%	67%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	23 \| 4.6	13 \| 3.3
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	9 \| 1.8	5 \| 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

6.40

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.80

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

85%

FT probability

3.5+

65%

FT probability

BTTS

88%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Nacional			Caravel
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	8	13	2	2	4
Wins	80%	50%	62%	100%	100%	100%
Draws	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	20%	50%	38%	0%	0%	0%

NacionalWLLLLWWWLWWWW

CaravelWWWW

League goals

Metric	Nacional			Caravel
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	14	26	40	5	8	13
GF avg	2.8	3.3	3.1	2.5	4.0	3.3
GA total	4	15	19	2	3	5
GA avg	0.8	1.9	1.5	1.0	1.5	1.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Nacional		Caravel
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	92%	69%	100%	75%
1.5	62%	38%	100%	50%
2.5	38%	31%	75%	0%
3.5	38%	8%	50%	0%
4.5	38%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Nacional			Caravel
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	2	2	4	1	0	1
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Wins	3	4
Draws	0	0
Losses	4	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-0	1-7	2-0	1-4
Biggest losses	1-2	3-1	—	—
Goals For	5	8	3	4
Goals Against	2	4	2	2

Model comparison

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Form	50%	50%
Att	64%	36%
Def	36%	64%
Poisson Distribution	64%	36%
H2h	71%	29%
Goals	71%	29%
Total	59.3%	40.7%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Nacional vs Caravel

Metric	Nacional	Caravel
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0