Cup — Kazakhstan
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 13:00 • Astana Arena
Not Started

FC Astana

—

FK Tobol Kostanay

Expected Goals
0.05 (league 0.72) 4.78 (league 1.67)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
0.0% 1.0% 64.4%
best score tips
0 - 4
17.4%
0 - 5
16.6%
0 - 3
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
FK Tobol Kostanay
0 1 2 3 4 5
FC Astana 0 0.8% 3.8% 9.1% 14.5% 17.4% 16.6%
1 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

FC Astana carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 86 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Astana +10.0, FK Tobol Kostanay +17.2.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
FC Astana Elo 1595.2 · +10.0
vs
FK Tobol Kostanay Elo 1544.7 · +17.2
Elo gapFC Astana +86
Home / draw / away49% / 20% / 31%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3139.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3139.9
Elo home share 62%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric FC Astana FK Tobol Kostanay
Overall Elo1595.21544.7
Form Elo1640.21622.1
Home / Away Elo1549.81525
Attack Elo1703.41600.4
Defense Elo1513.51547.8
Last 5 Elo change+10.0+17.2

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. FC Astana last-5 Elo change: +10.0; FK Tobol Kostanay last-5 Elo change: +17.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack13%53%
Defense93%100%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 28 | 8
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 10 | 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

10.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

8.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

68%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FC Astana FK Tobol Kostanay
HATHAT
Played011011
Wins—100%100%—100%100%
Draws—0%0%—0%0%
Loses—0%0%—0%0%
FC AstanaW
FK Tobol KostanayW

League goals

Metric FC Astana FK Tobol Kostanay
HATHAT
GF total022088
GF avg0.02.02.00.08.08.0
GA total011000
GA avg0.01.01.00.00.00.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%0%
1.5100%0%100%0%
2.50%0%100%0%
3.50%0%100%0%
4.50%0%100%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-2—0-8
Biggest losses————
Goals For0208
Goals Against0100

Model comparison

MetricFC AstanaFK Tobol Kostanay
Form50%50%
Att20%80%
Def0%100%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h40%60%
Goals46%54%
Total39.0%61.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.63 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away4.65 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.83 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.87 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.79 @ Marathonbet
No1.87 @ Marathonbet
📊

League standings

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