Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.05 (league 0.86)
0.33 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.9% | 34.6% | 11.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
26.5%
0 - 0
25.2%
2 - 0
13.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Bakaridjan | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Réal Bamako | 0 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.0% | 4.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Réal Bamako carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 133 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Réal Bamako -4.9, Bakaridjan +12.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Réal Bamako
vs
Bakaridjan
Elo gapRéal Bamako +133
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3066.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3066.5
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1582.2 | 1484.3 |
| Form Elo | 1586.5 | 1489.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.4 | 1515.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1488.6 | 1374.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1653.6 | 1583.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.9 | +12.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Réal Bamako last-5 Elo change: -4.9; Bakaridjan last-5 Elo change: +12.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 86% | 71% |
| Defense | 43% | 29% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
47%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 10 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 50% | 60% | 56% | 11% | 33% | 22% |
| Draws | 38% | 20% | 28% | 44% | 22% | 33% |
| Loses | 13% | 20% | 17% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Réal BamakoWWDWWDLWWDLWWDWDWL
BakaridjanDLWLLDLDLDLWDWWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 13 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 44% | 44% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 11% | 11% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-3 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Réal Bamako | Bakaridjan |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 61.7% | 38.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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