Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 19:00 •
Metropolitano Stadium
Expected Goals
0.48 (league 1.87)
2.28 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | 15.4% | 75.5% |
best score tips
0 - 2
16.4%
0 - 1
14.4%
0 - 3
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Arsenal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Madrid | 0 | 6.3% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Arsenal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Madrid +10.5, Arsenal +19.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Atletico Madrid
vs
Arsenal
Elo gapArsenal +64
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3424.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3424.9
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1663 | 1761.9 |
| Form Elo | 1671.6 | 1797.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1618.7 | 1636.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1780 | 1772.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1624.4 | 1784.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.5 | +19.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Atletico Madrid last-5 Elo change: +10.5; Arsenal last-5 Elo change: +19.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 73% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 43% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 71% | 29% | 50% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| Draws | 0% | 29% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Loses | 29% | 43% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Atletico MadridLWLWWWDLDWWLWL
ArsenalWWWWWWWWDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 13 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 10 | 16 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 93% | 93% | 92% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 71% | 57% | 75% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 29% | 50% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 7% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atletico Madrid | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 27% | 73% |
| Poisson Distribution | 18% | 82% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.95 @ 1xBet
Draw3.33 @ 1xBet
Away2.66 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.34 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.70 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.90 @ Betfair
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League standings
Loading standings…