Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 19:00 •
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.63)
0.73 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.9% | 21.9% | 14.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.1%
2 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Strasbourg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 7.7% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.0% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Rayo Vallecano +20.7, Strasbourg +18.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Rayo Vallecano
vs
Strasbourg
Elo gapRayo Vallecano +9
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3203.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3203.5
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1588.9 | 1614.6 |
| Form Elo | 1609.3 | 1641.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.2 | 1551.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1573.8 | 1638.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1618.8 | 1607.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.7 | +18.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Rayo Vallecano last-5 Elo change: +20.7; Strasbourg last-5 Elo change: +18.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 67% |
| Attack | 56% | 56% |
| Defense | 72% | 72% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 83% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 83% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 17% | 8% | 50% | 0% | 25% |
| Loses | 17% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 17% | 8% |
Rayo VallecanoWWWDWLWWWLWL
StrasbourgDWWDWWWWWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 10 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 3 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 58% | 83% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 58% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 8% | 25% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.10 @ 1xBet
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away3.81 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.08 @ SBO
Under 2.51.83 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.87 @ Betfair
No1.98 @ Unibet
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League standings
Loading standings…