Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 19:00 •
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
Expected Goals
0.72 (league 1.63)
0.96 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% | 34.0% | 39.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
18.7%
0 - 1
17.9%
1 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Crystal Palace | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.5% | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 170 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shakhtar Donetsk -2.1, Crystal Palace +27.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Crystal Palace
Elo gapShakhtar Donetsk +170
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3350.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3350.3
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1742.5 | 1607.8 |
| Form Elo | 1750 | 1627.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1593.7 | 1560.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1847.7 | 1559.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1735 | 1667.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.1 | +27.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Shakhtar Donetsk last-5 Elo change: -2.1; Crystal Palace last-5 Elo change: +27.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 50% | 44% |
| Defense | 72% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Wins | 33% | 83% | 58% | 57% | 43% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 17% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| Loses | 33% | 0% | 17% | 14% | 29% | 21% |
Shakhtar DonetskDWWLWWWDWLWD
Crystal PalaceWDWLWLWDDWDWWL
League goals
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 67% | 79% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 50% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 21% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shakhtar Donetsk | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 43.8% | 56.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.90 @ 1xBet
Draw3.45 @ Betano
Away2.08 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.20 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.78 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.88 @ Betano
No1.97 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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