Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Parque Artigas
Expected Goals
0.70 (league 1.14)
1.53 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.9% | 25.7% | 56.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
16.4%
0 - 2
12.6%
1 - 1
11.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Liverpool Montevideo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juventud | 0 | 10.7% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Juventud -33.5, Liverpool Montevideo -12.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Juventud
vs
Liverpool Montevideo
Elo gapLiverpool Montevideo +12
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo2997.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2997.2
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1475.3 | 1521.9 |
| Form Elo | 1456.5 | 1516.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1501.9 | 1522.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1451.8 | 1515.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.7 | 1524.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.5 | -12.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Juventud last-5 Elo change: -33.5; Liverpool Montevideo last-5 Elo change: -12.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 38% | 69% |
| Defense | 46% | 15% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 17% | 17% | 50% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 17% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Loses | 67% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 17% | 33% |
JuventudLDLLWLLLLLWD
Liverpool MontevideoWLDWWDLDDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 13 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 92% | 75% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 42% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 8% | 17% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Juventud | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 61% | 39% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 51.2% | 49.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.60 @ 10Bet
Draw3.34 @ 1xBet
Away2.18 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.83 @ William Hill
No1.91 @ William Hill
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League standings
Loading standings…