Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 22:00 •
Gran Parque Central
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.14)
0.49 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.9% | 20.0% | 8.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.5%
2 - 0
16.5%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Danubio | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Club Nacional | 0 | 9.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.4% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Club Nacional carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 162 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Club Nacional -23.3, Danubio -7.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Club Nacional
vs
Danubio
Elo gapClub Nacional +162
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo3108.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3108.3
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1617.5 | 1490.8 |
| Form Elo | 1588 | 1493.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1562 | 1469.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1619.2 | 1479.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1575.3 | 1536.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -23.3 | -7.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Club Nacional last-5 Elo change: -23.3; Danubio last-5 Elo change: -7.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 85% | 31% |
| Defense | 38% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 40% | 57% | 50% | 33% | 17% | 25% |
| Draws | 20% | 0% | 8% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Loses | 40% | 43% | 42% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
Club NacionalWDWLLWLWWLLW
DanubioWWLDDWLDLDDD
League goals
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 13 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 3 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 16 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Club Nacional | Danubio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 17% | 8% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-2 | — | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Club Nacional | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 85% | 15% |
| Total | 72.3% | 27.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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