Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Parque Palermo
Expected Goals
2.69 (league 1.15)
0.66 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.6% | 13.1% | 6.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.7%
3 - 0
11.4%
1 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Cerro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Central Espanol | 0 | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Central Espanol carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 159 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Central Espanol -27.4, Cerro -4.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Central Espanol
vs
Cerro
Elo gapCentral Espanol +159
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo3050.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3050.9
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1587.6 | 1463.3 |
| Form Elo | 1586.4 | 1454.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1508.1 | 1452.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1529.5 | 1380.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1586.4 | 1512.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -27.4 | -4.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Central Espanol last-5 Elo change: -27.4; Cerro last-5 Elo change: -4.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 53% |
| Attack | 69% | 31% |
| Defense | 8% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Wins | 40% | 43% | 42% | 29% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 20% | 29% | 25% | 43% | 20% | 33% |
| Loses | 40% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 80% | 50% |
Central EspanolWWWLDLLDWWDL
CerroLLDDLLLWLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 8 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 16 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Central Espanol | Cerro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 67% | 58% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 42% | 0% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Central Espanol | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 80% | 20% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 48.3% | 51.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.14 @ 1xBet
Draw3.18 @ Pinnacle
Away3.61 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.45 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.60 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.05 @ BetVictor
No1.77 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…