Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla
Expected Goals
0.98 (league 1.15)
1.85 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.5% | 22.5% | 56.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
10.9%
1 - 1
10.7%
0 - 2
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Racing Montevideo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cerro Largo | 0 | 5.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Racing Montevideo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cerro Largo +18.3, Racing Montevideo +21.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Cerro Largo
vs
Racing Montevideo
Elo gapRacing Montevideo +36
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3008.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3008.8
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468.8 | 1540 |
| Form Elo | 1471.1 | 1566.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1451.2 | 1532.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1446 | 1492.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1516.7 | 1547.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +18.3 | +21.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Cerro Largo last-5 Elo change: +18.3; Racing Montevideo last-5 Elo change: +21.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 38% | 62% |
| Defense | 46% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Wins | 40% | 29% | 33% | 57% | 80% | 67% |
| Draws | 20% | 14% | 17% | 29% | 20% | 25% |
| Loses | 40% | 57% | 50% | 14% | 0% | 8% |
Cerro LargoWLLLLWWLWDDL
Racing MontevideoLDWWWWWDWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 5 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 58% | 83% | 100% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 8% | 17% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 2-4 | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 33.3% | 66.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.82 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.22 @ Pinnacle
Away2.18 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.45 @ Betano
Under 2.51.58 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.74 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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