Expected Goals
2.20 (league 1.43)
0.74 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.4% | 18.1% | 11.0% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.9%
1 - 0
11.7%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Ferizaj | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ballkani | 0 | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.9% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ballkani carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ballkani -8.8, Ferizaj +2.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ballkani
vs
Ferizaj
Elo gapBallkani +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3069.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3069.4
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1555.7 | 1513.7 |
| Form Elo | 1542.8 | 1518.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1557.1 | 1472.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1633 | 1445.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1507.6 | 1549.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.8 | +2.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ballkani last-5 Elo change: -8.8; Ferizaj last-5 Elo change: +2.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 43% | 43% |
| Defense | 50% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 57% | 40% | 48% | 47% | 14% | 31% |
| Draws | 29% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 36% | 21% |
| Loses | 14% | 40% | 28% | 47% | 50% | 48% |
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FerizajWWLLLLLWDLWDLDLDLWLLWDLWWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 23 | 52 | 17 | 13 | 30 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 13 | 19 | 32 | 18 | 21 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ballkani | Ferizaj | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 69% | 72% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 28% | 24% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 7% | 7% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-2 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ballkani | Ferizaj |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 56.7% | 43.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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