First League
— Bulgaria
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Arena Arda
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.29)
0.94 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.0% | 31.3% | 32.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.3%
0 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Botev Plovdiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 14.2% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.3% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Arda Kardzhali carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 80 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Arda Kardzhali +25.6, Botev Plovdiv +23.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Arda Kardzhali
vs
Botev Plovdiv
Elo gapArda Kardzhali +80
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3143.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3143.5
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1594.1 | 1549.4 |
| Form Elo | 1605.3 | 1570.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.7 | 1508.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1548.7 | 1565.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1613.8 | 1556.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.6 | +23.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Arda Kardzhali last-5 Elo change: +25.6; Botev Plovdiv last-5 Elo change: +23.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 63% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 47% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 36% | 34% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 21% | 24% |
| Loses | 27% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 43% | 41% |
Arda KardzhaliLDWDLDLWLLWLDLWWDDWLWDWDLWWWLW
Botev PlovdivDLLLWLLWLLWDLWLWDLDLWDWDLWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 18 | 33 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 15 | 27 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 57% | 69% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 23% | 38% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 10% | 10% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 89% | 11% |
| Total | 63.8% | 36.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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