First League
— Bulgaria
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
National Stadium Vasil Levski
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.29)
0.92 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 41.8% | 29.5% | 28.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.4%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Levski Sofia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| CSKA Sofia | 0 | 12.1% | 11.2% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 13.3% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
CSKA Sofia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: CSKA Sofia +8.8, Levski Sofia +18.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
CSKA Sofia
vs
Levski Sofia
Elo gapCSKA Sofia +32
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3338.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3338.2
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1667.7 | 1670.5 |
| Form Elo | 1677 | 1687.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1602.2 | 1572.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1622.4 | 1681.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1695.7 | 1694.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.8 | +18.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. CSKA Sofia last-5 Elo change: +8.8; Levski Sofia last-5 Elo change: +18.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 73% |
| Attack | 88% | 88% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 67% | 40% | 53% | 87% | 60% | 73% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 7% | 20% | 13% |
| Loses | 7% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 20% | 13% |
CSKA SofiaDDLDLDWLDDDWWWWWWWLWWWLWWLWWWD
Levski SofiaWWWWDWWDLWWWWWLWWLWWWWWLWWWDWD
League goals
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 17 | 43 | 38 | 26 | 64 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 9 | 14 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 60% | 80% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 13% | 63% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 3% | 40% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 8 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 8 |
Streaks
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-4 | 7-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | CSKA Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 48% | 52% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.63 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away3.00 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.45 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Betano
No1.80 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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