First League — Bulgaria
Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 • Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov
Not Started

Levski Sofia

—

CSKA 1948

Expected Goals
1.76 (league 1.28) 0.92 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
56.2% 23.4% 19.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.1%
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
CSKA 1948
0 1 2 3 4 5
Levski Sofia 0 6.9% 6.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 12.1% 11.1% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.6% 9.8% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 6.2% 5.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Levski Sofia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 99 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Levski Sofia +26.6, CSKA 1948 +36.8.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Levski Sofia Elo 1684.7 · +26.6
vs
CSKA 1948 Elo 1620.3 · +36.8
Elo gapLevski Sofia +99
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3305
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3305
Elo home share 64%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Levski Sofia CSKA 1948
Overall Elo1684.71620.3
Form Elo17071652.4
Home / Away Elo1588.31563.2
Attack Elo1698.21637.8
Defense Elo1697.41598.6
Last 5 Elo change+26.6+36.8

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Levski Sofia last-5 Elo change: +26.6; CSKA 1948 last-5 Elo change: +36.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
Played55
Form73%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense38%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.810 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Levski Sofia CSKA 1948
HATHAT
Played151631151631
Wins87%63%74%60%63%61%
Draws7%19%13%20%13%16%
Loses7%19%13%20%25%23%
Levski SofiaWWWWDWWDLWWWWWLWWLWWWWWLWWWDWDW
CSKA 1948WDWLWWLWWWDWWDLLWWDWLLWWDWWLWWW

League goals

Metric Levski Sofia CSKA 1948
HATHAT
GF total382967252752
GF avg2.51.82.21.71.71.7
GA total91423171532
GA avg0.60.90.71.10.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%61%77%61%
1.565%10%45%26%
2.542%3%23%13%
3.513%0%16%3%
4.510%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
HATHAT
Clean sheets84125712
Failed to score246437

Penalties

MetricLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total85

Streaks

MetricLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
Wins53
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-01-54-00-5
Biggest losses0-12-01-33-0
Goals For7555
Goals Against3243

Model comparison

MetricLevski SofiaCSKA 1948
Form48%52%
Att47%53%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h80%20%
Goals69%31%
Total61.0%39.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.60 @ William Hill
Draw3.84 @ Marathonbet
Away6.00 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.98 @ Unibet
No1.85 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.98 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.89 @ Pinnacle
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League standings

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