Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 22:00 •
Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.09)
1.32 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.6% | 22.8% | 27.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.3%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Oriental | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Plaza Colonia | 0 | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Oriental carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 45 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Plaza Colonia +34.1, Oriental +41.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Plaza Colonia
vs
Oriental
Elo gapOriental +45
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2988
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2988
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1454 | 1534 |
| Form Elo | 1482 | 1571.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1445.6 | 1519 |
| Attack Elo | 1411.7 | 1482.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.4 | 1552 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +34.1 | +41.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Plaza Colonia last-5 Elo change: +34.1; Oriental last-5 Elo change: +41.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 87% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 71% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 67% | 100% | 80% |
| Draws | 50% | 67% | 60% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Plaza ColoniaDWWDD
OrientalWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Plaza Colonia | Oriental | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 40% | 80% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 0% | 60% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Oriental |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 55% | 45% |
| Total | 54.2% | 45.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…