Mogi Mirim vs Independente SP

Paulista Série B — Brazil

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:00 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Mogi Mirim

—

Independente SP

Expected Goals

0.05 (league 1.37) 3.78 (league 1.06)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
0.1%	2.6%	79.2%

best score tips

0 - 3

19.6%

0 - 4

18.5%

0 - 2

15.5%

Score & goals probability table

		Independente SP
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Mogi Mirim	0	2.2%	8.2%	15.5%	19.6%	18.5%	13.9%
	1	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%	1.0%	0.9%	0.7%
	2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Mogi Mirim -11.6, Independente SP +6.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Mogi Mirim Elo 1488.4 · -11.6

Independente SP Elo 1510.4 · +6.5

Elo gapMogi Mirim +13

Home / draw / away37% / 29% / 34%

Expected home share52%

Combined Elo2998.8

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2998.8

Elo home share 52%

Match tone Strong Watch

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Overall Elo	1488.4	1510.4
Form Elo	1436.2	1539.7
Home / Away Elo	1500	1495.2
Attack Elo	1488.4	1541.7
Defense Elo	1495.1	1495.9
Last 5 Elo change	-11.6	+6.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Mogi Mirim last-5 Elo change: -11.6; Independente SP last-5 Elo change: +6.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Played	1	1
Form	0%	100%
Attack	0%	13%
Defense	88%	100%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	0 \| 0	2 \| 2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	2 \| 2	0 \| 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

29%

FT probability

2.5+

20%

FT probability

3.5+

14%

FT probability

BTTS

40%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Mogi Mirim			Independente SP
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	0	1	1	1	0	1
Wins	—	0%	0%	100%	—	100%
Draws	—	0%	0%	0%	—	0%
Loses	—	100%	100%	0%	—	0%

Mogi MirimL

Independente SPW

League goals

Metric	Mogi Mirim			Independente SP
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	0	0	0	2	0	2
GF avg	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.0
GA total	0	2	2	0	0	0
GA avg	0.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Mogi Mirim		Independente SP
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	0%	100%	100%	0%
1.5	0%	100%	100%	0%
2.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Mogi Mirim			Independente SP
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	0	0	0	1	0	1
Failed to score	0	1	1	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Wins	0	1
Draws	0	0
Losses	1	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	—	—	2-0	—
Biggest losses	—	2-0	—	—
Goals For	0	0	2	0
Goals Against	0	2	0	0

Model comparison

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Form	0%	100%
Att	0%	100%
Def	0%	100%
Poisson Distribution	0%	0%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	0%	0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Mogi Mirim vs Independente SP

Metric	Mogi Mirim	Independente SP
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0