Paulista Série B — Brazil
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Matonense

—

Santacruzense

Expected Goals
0.05 (league 1.36) 11.44 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
best score tips
0 - 5
1.7%
0 - 4
0.7%
0 - 3
0.3%
Score & goals probability table
Santacruzense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matonense 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.7%
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Santacruzense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Matonense -6.5, Santacruzense -2.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Matonense Elo 1372.5 · -6.5
vs
Santacruzense Elo 1521.3 · -2.5
Elo gapSantacruzense +114
Home / draw / away28% / 18% / 54%
Expected home share34%
Combined Elo2893.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2893.8
Elo home share 34%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Matonense Santacruzense
Overall Elo1372.51521.3
Form Elo1343.31510
Home / Away Elo1447.41495.2
Attack Elo14531511.7
Defense Elo1322.51537.1
Last 5 Elo change-6.5-2.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Matonense last-5 Elo change: -6.5; Santacruzense last-5 Elo change: -2.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMatonenseSantacruzense
Played11
Form0%100%
Attack0%38%
Defense88%100%
Goals For (tot | avg)0 | 06 | 6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 20 | 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

6.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

47%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Matonense Santacruzense
HATHAT
Played011101
Wins—0%0%100%—100%
Draws—0%0%0%—0%
Loses—100%100%0%—0%
MatonenseL
SantacruzenseW

League goals

Metric Matonense Santacruzense
HATHAT
GF total000606
GF avg0.00.00.06.00.06.0
GA total022000
GA avg0.02.02.00.00.00.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMatonenseSantacruzense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.50%100%100%0%
1.50%100%100%0%
2.50%0%100%0%
3.50%0%100%0%
4.50%0%100%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMatonenseSantacruzense
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricMatonenseSantacruzense
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMatonenseSantacruzense
Wins01
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——6-0—
Biggest losses—2-0——
Goals For0060
Goals Against0200

Model comparison

MetricMatonenseSantacruzense
Form0%100%
Att0%100%
Def0%100%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total0%0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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