Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 07:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.16 (league 1.25)
0.67 (league 1.50)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.5% | 18.1% | 10.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.8%
1 - 0
12.8%
3 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Werribee City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nunawading | 0 | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Nunawading carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nunawading -2.1, Werribee City +0.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Nunawading
vs
Werribee City
Elo gapNunawading +38
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3003.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3003.9
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.6 | 1500.3 |
| Form Elo | 1497.4 | 1509.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504.6 | 1500 |
| Attack Elo | 1584 | 1487.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1512.6 | 1481 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.1 | +0.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Nunawading last-5 Elo change: -2.1; Werribee City last-5 Elo change: +0.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 24% | 47% |
| Defense | 65% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Wins | 60% | 25% | 44% | 29% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 40% | 0% | 22% | 29% | 50% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 75% | 33% | 43% | 50% | 44% |
NunawadingWLWWDWLDL
Werribee CityLLDWLDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nunawading | Werribee City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 0% | 22% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nunawading | Werribee City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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