Fri, May 1 2026 • 09:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.48 (league 1.32)
0.32 (league 1.57)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
44.8%
1 - 0
21.7%
0 - 1
14.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Moreland City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Box Hill | 0 | 44.8% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Box Hill carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 137 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Box Hill -0.9, Moreland City -5.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Box Hill
vs
Moreland City
Elo gapBox Hill +137
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2896.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2896.3
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1499.1 | 1397.2 |
| Form Elo | 1495.4 | 1380.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491 | 1448.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1497.2 | 1471.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1502.8 | 1190.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.9 | -5.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Box Hill last-5 Elo change: -0.9; Moreland City last-5 Elo change: -5.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 7% |
| Attack | 19% | 24% |
| Defense | 90% | 24% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 16 | 3.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 25% | 50% | 40% | 0% | 25% | 11% |
| Draws | 50% | 50% | 50% | 20% | 50% | 33% |
| Loses | 25% | 0% | 10% | 80% | 25% | 56% |
Box HillWLDDWDWWDD
Moreland CityDWLDLDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 12 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 3 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Box Hill | Moreland City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 60% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 20% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 10% | 0% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-4 | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Box Hill | Moreland City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 90% | 10% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 89% | 11% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 70.0% | 30.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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