Fri, May 1 2026 • 10:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.32)
0.95 (league 1.57)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.9% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.7%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Keilor Park | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Whittlesea United | 0 | 10.6% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.8% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Whittlesea United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Whittlesea United -8.9, Keilor Park -31.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Whittlesea United
vs
Keilor Park
Elo gapWhittlesea United +58
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2959.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2959.3
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.1 | 1468.2 |
| Form Elo | 1477.2 | 1436.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500 | 1480.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1476.1 | 1477.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1518.8 | 1499 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.9 | -31.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Whittlesea United last-5 Elo change: -8.9; Keilor Park last-5 Elo change: -31.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 47% |
| Attack | 29% | 33% |
| Defense | 57% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Wins | 0% | 13% | 10% | 50% | 33% | 40% |
| Draws | 100% | 25% | 40% | 25% | 0% | 10% |
| Loses | 0% | 63% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 50% |
Whittlesea UnitedWDLLLDLLDD
Keilor ParkLLWLWWLWLD
League goals
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 2 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 80% | 80% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 10% | 30% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-2 | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Whittlesea United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 43.3% | 56.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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