Matogrossense 2 — Brazil
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 19:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Atlético Matogrossense

—

Paulistano MT

Expected Goals
8.94 (league 0.89) 0.05 (league 1.68)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
best score tips
5 - 0
5.9%
4 - 0
3.3%
3 - 0
1.5%
Score & goals probability table
Paulistano MT
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atlético Matogrossense 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Atlético Matogrossense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 41 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atlético Matogrossense 0.0, Paulistano MT -18.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Atlético Matogrossense Elo 1488.4 · 0.0
vs
Paulistano MT Elo 1482 · -18.0
Elo gapAtlético Matogrossense +41
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2970.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2970.4
Elo home share 56%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Atlético Matogrossense Paulistano MT
Overall Elo1488.41482
Form Elo1488.41401
Home / Away Elo1489.41500
Attack Elo1502.21483.1
Defense Elo1477.21468.9
Last 5 Elo change0.0-18.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Atlético Matogrossense last-5 Elo change: 0.0; Paulistano MT last-5 Elo change: -18.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
Played11
Form33%0%
Attack18%0%
Defense82%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 20 | 0
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 24 | 4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

6.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atlético Matogrossense Paulistano MT
HATHAT
Played011101
Wins—0%0%0%—0%
Draws—100%100%0%—0%
Loses—0%0%100%—100%
Atlético MatogrossenseD
Paulistano MTL

League goals

Metric Atlético Matogrossense Paulistano MT
HATHAT
GF total022000
GF avg0.02.02.00.00.00.0
GA total022404
GA avg0.02.02.04.00.04.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%0%100%
1.5100%100%0%100%
2.50%0%0%100%
3.50%0%0%100%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
Wins00
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins————
Biggest losses——0-4—
Goals For0200
Goals Against0240

Model comparison

MetricAtlético MatogrossensePaulistano MT
Form100%0%
Att100%0%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h100%0%
Goals83%17%
Total75.0%25.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Atlético Matogrossense vs Paulistano MT