Iraqi League — Iraq
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Al-Qasim

—

Al-Karma

Expected Goals
0.22 (league 1.25) 2.74 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
1.7% 8.8% 83.6%
best score tips
0 - 2
19.5%
0 - 3
17.8%
0 - 1
14.3%
Score & goals probability table
Al-Karma
0 1 2 3 4 5
Al-Qasim 0 5.2% 14.3% 19.5% 17.8% 12.2% 6.7%
1 1.1% 3.1% 4.2% 3.9% 2.6% 1.4%
2 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Al-Karma carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 267 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Al-Qasim -24.4, Al-Karma +20.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Al-Qasim Elo 1277.8 · -24.4
vs
Al-Karma Elo 1579.9 · +20.5
Elo gapAl-Karma +267
Home / draw / away15% / 18% / 67%
Expected home share18%
Combined Elo2857.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2857.7
Elo home share 18%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Al-Qasim Al-Karma
Overall Elo1277.81579.9
Form Elo12531582.8
Home / Away Elo1383.81528.6
Attack Elo1315.11530
Defense Elo1195.41641.3
Last 5 Elo change-24.4+20.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Al-Qasim last-5 Elo change: -24.4; Al-Karma last-5 Elo change: +20.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAl-QasimAl-Karma
Played55
Form0%60%
Attack15%54%
Defense0%92%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)18 | 3.61 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Al-Qasim Al-Karma
HATHAT
Played141529161430
Wins0%0%0%56%36%47%
Draws0%13%7%38%29%33%
Loses100%87%93%6%36%20%
Al-QasimLLLDLLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Al-KarmaWWDLWLWDWWLWWWWDDDWLLWDDLDWWDD

League goals

Metric Al-Qasim Al-Karma
HATHAT
GF total459281442
GF avg0.30.30.31.81.01.4
GA total42317391221
GA avg3.02.12.50.60.90.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAl-QasimAl-Karma
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.528%97%77%50%
1.53%79%40%17%
2.50%45%20%3%
3.50%14%3%0%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAl-QasimAl-Karma
HATHAT
Clean sheets0119615
Failed to score111021257

Penalties

MetricAl-QasimAl-Karma
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%8 | 88.89%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 11.11%
Total39

Streaks

MetricAl-QasimAl-Karma
Wins04
Draws13
Losses112

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——4-00-3
Biggest losses1-75-02-32-0
Goals For2143
Goals Against7532

Model comparison

MetricAl-QasimAl-Karma
Form0%100%
Att22%78%
Def5%95%
Poisson Distribution7%93%
H2h0%100%
Goals17%83%
Total12.8%87.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Al-Qasim vs Al-Karma