Iraqi League
— Iraq
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.23 (league 1.25)
0.63 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.5% | 30.2% | 19.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.1%
0 - 0
15.5%
1 - 1
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Al Minaa Basra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gharraf | 0 | 15.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Gharraf carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gharraf -4.9, Al Minaa Basra -25.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Gharraf
vs
Al Minaa Basra
Elo gapGharraf +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2913.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2913.2
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1477.8 | 1435.4 |
| Form Elo | 1465.1 | 1428.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.7 | 1460.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1485 | 1442.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1517.3 | 1503.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.9 | -25.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Gharraf last-5 Elo change: -4.9; Al Minaa Basra last-5 Elo change: -25.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 54% | 38% |
| Defense | 54% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 40% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 20% | 24% |
| Draws | 20% | 27% | 23% | 36% | 20% | 28% |
| Loses | 40% | 47% | 43% | 36% | 60% | 48% |
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Al Minaa BasraWLLWDWLLDLLLWDDDDLLWWLDDLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 16 | 32 | 18 | 11 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 18 | 33 | 15 | 21 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 67% | 59% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 30% | 24% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 13% | 10% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 7% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gharraf | Al Minaa Basra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 60.5% | 39.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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