Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 02:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.22 (league 1.54)
0.78 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6% | 18.1% | 11.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Celaya | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cimarrones | 0 | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.1% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Cimarrones carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cimarrones -6.7, Celaya +18.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Cimarrones
vs
Celaya
Elo gapCimarrones +44
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3195
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3195
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1602.1 | 1592.9 |
| Form Elo | 1601.3 | 1595.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1575.7 | 1516.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1648.9 | 1623.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1635.9 | 1571.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.7 | +18.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Cimarrones last-5 Elo change: -6.7; Celaya last-5 Elo change: +18.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 58% | 92% |
| Defense | 67% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 64% | 40% | 52% | 71% | 38% | 56% |
| Draws | 29% | 33% | 31% | 14% | 15% | 15% |
| Loses | 7% | 27% | 17% | 14% | 46% | 30% |
CimarronesWWWDLWWLWDDDWWWWDLWDWLWWDWDDL
CelayaWLWLLLLDWWWWWWWWDWLWLDLDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 25 | 50 | 33 | 19 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 8 | 15 | 23 | 10 | 25 | 35 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cimarrones | Celaya | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 55% | 85% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 24% | 56% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 0% | 30% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 11% | 15% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 8 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-2 | 0-4 | 6-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cimarrones | Celaya |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 39% | 61% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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