Botola Pro
— Morocco
Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 19:00 •
Stade Municipal de Berkane
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.10)
0.45 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9% | 24.9% | 10.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.0%
2 - 0
16.2%
0 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Kawkab Marrakech | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Renaissance Berkane | 0 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.3% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Renaissance Berkane carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Renaissance Berkane +4.0, Kawkab Marrakech +12.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Renaissance Berkane
vs
Kawkab Marrakech
Elo gapRenaissance Berkane +177
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3206.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3206.4
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1674 | 1532.4 |
| Form Elo | 1675.1 | 1538.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1586 | 1503 |
| Attack Elo | 1602.4 | 1447.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1686.1 | 1624.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.0 | +12.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Renaissance Berkane last-5 Elo change: +4.0; Kawkab Marrakech last-5 Elo change: +12.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 80% |
| Defense | 20% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Wins | 57% | 38% | 47% | 38% | 0% | 19% |
| Draws | 43% | 38% | 40% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 13% | 50% | 31% |
Renaissance BerkaneWWDDWLWWDLWWDDD
Kawkab MarrakechLLLDWLWLDDDDDWDD
League goals
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 11 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 7 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 73% | 56% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 13% | 19% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 7% | 6% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-4 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Renaissance Berkane | Kawkab Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 64.8% | 35.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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