Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio Francisco Zarco
Expected Goals
1.18 (league 1.54)
0.90 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.2% | 29.7% | 28.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.7%
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Zacatepec 1948 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Durango | 0 | 12.5% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Durango carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 142 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Durango +14.4, Zacatepec 1948 +20.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Durango
vs
Zacatepec 1948
Elo gapDurango +142
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3229.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3229.2
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1668.2 | 1561 |
| Form Elo | 1682.5 | 1575.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1557.7 | 1535.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1748.4 | 1503.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1642.2 | 1625.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.4 | +20.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Durango last-5 Elo change: +14.4; Zacatepec 1948 last-5 Elo change: +20.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 53% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 56% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 77% | 79% | 78% | 47% | 43% | 45% |
| Draws | 8% | 14% | 11% | 40% | 29% | 34% |
| Loses | 15% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 29% | 21% |
DurangoWWLWWWLWWWWDWWWWLWWWWWWDWWD
Zacatepec 1948LWLWWLWLWDWDDWDLDDWDWDWWWLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 34 | 39 | 73 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 10 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 52% | 62% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 11% | 34% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 4% | 21% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 22% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-6 | 2-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Durango | Zacatepec 1948 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 55.2% | 44.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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