Premier League International Cup — World
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Dinamo Zagreb U21

—

Real Madrid U21

Expected Goals
2.27 (league 1.41) 3.03 (league 1.78)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.2% 16.8% 45.7%
best score tips
2 - 3
6.0%
2 - 2
5.9%
1 - 3
5.3%
Score & goals probability table
Real Madrid U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Dinamo Zagreb U21 0 0.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1%
1 1.1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.3% 4.0% 2.4%
2 1.3% 3.9% 5.9% 6.0% 4.5% 2.7%
3 1.0% 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% 2.1%
4 0.6% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2%
5 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Dinamo Zagreb U21 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dinamo Zagreb U21 +37.2, Real Madrid U21 +38.2.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Dinamo Zagreb U21 Elo 1537.2 · +37.2
vs
Real Madrid U21 Elo 1538.1 · +38.2
Elo gapDinamo Zagreb U21 +34
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3075.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3075.3
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Dinamo Zagreb U21 Real Madrid U21
Overall Elo1537.21538.1
Form Elo1565.81584.1
Home / Away Elo1506.81521.4
Attack Elo1527.81526.7
Defense Elo1514.11529.3
Last 5 Elo change+37.2+38.2

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Dinamo Zagreb U21 last-5 Elo change: +37.2; Real Madrid U21 last-5 Elo change: +38.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
Played55
Form80%73%
Attack50%45%
Defense70%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Dinamo Zagreb U21 Real Madrid U21
HATHAT
Played145055
Wins100%75%80%—60%60%
Draws0%0%0%—40%40%
Loses0%25%20%—0%0%
Dinamo Zagreb U21WWWLW
Real Madrid U21WDWDW

League goals

Metric Dinamo Zagreb U21 Real Madrid U21
HATHAT
GF total4610099
GF avg4.01.52.00.01.81.8
GA total336044
GA avg3.00.81.20.00.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%60%100%60%
1.560%40%40%20%
2.540%20%20%0%
3.520%0%20%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
HATHAT
Clean sheets022022
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Total01

Streaks

MetricDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
Wins31
Draws01
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-30-3—2-4
Biggest losses—2-0——
Goals For4304
Goals Against3202

Model comparison

MetricDinamo Zagreb U21Real Madrid U21
Form52%48%
Att53%47%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total47.0%53.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Dinamo Zagreb U21 vs Real Madrid U21