Suomen Cup — Finland
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 15:30 • Kokkolan keskuskentta
Not Started

GBK

—

FF Jaro

Expected Goals
2.29 (league 1.31) 1.23 (league 3.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.4% 19.3% 19.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 1
8.3%
2 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
FF Jaro
0 1 2 3 4 5
GBK 0 2.8% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.5% 8.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.6% 9.5% 5.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.3% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 3.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

GBK carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 74 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: GBK +9.8, FF Jaro +15.4.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
GBK Elo 1556.5 · +9.8
vs
FF Jaro Elo 1517.9 · +15.4
Elo gapGBK +74
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3074.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3074.4
Elo home share 60%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric GBK FF Jaro
Overall Elo1556.51517.9
Form Elo1600.61587.2
Home / Away Elo1512.51542.6
Attack Elo1590.71559.8
Defense Elo1382.61446.6
Last 5 Elo change+9.8+15.4

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. GBK last-5 Elo change: +9.8; FF Jaro last-5 Elo change: +15.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGBKFF Jaro
Played11
Form100%100%
Attack13%8%
Defense92%96%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 32 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 21 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

88%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric GBK FF Jaro
HATHAT
Played011011
Wins—100%100%—100%100%
Draws—0%0%—0%0%
Loses—0%0%—0%0%
GBKW
FF JaroW

League goals

Metric GBK FF Jaro
HATHAT
GF total033022
GF avg0.03.03.00.02.02.0
GA total022011
GA avg0.02.02.00.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGBKFF Jaro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.5100%100%100%0%
2.5100%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGBKFF Jaro
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricGBKFF Jaro
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricGBKFF Jaro
Wins11
Draws00
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—2-3—1-2
Biggest losses————
Goals For0302
Goals Against0201

Model comparison

MetricGBKFF Jaro
Form50%50%
Att60%40%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total47.7%52.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home29.00 @ William Hill
Draw11.00 @ Bet365
Away1.07 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.25 @ 10Bet
Under 2.54.00 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.75 @ Bet365
No1.60 @ William Hill
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League standings

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